For the first time since 2019, Marvel made a grand return to the San Diego Comic Book Convention. They used the moment to “win” the weekend with a slew of big news drops, a few trailers (most of which were kept offline) and the usual parade of filmmakers and MCU-specific celebrities. WB wasn’t competing on the same level, at least not for this event. Warner Bros. Discovery used their hour-long presentation earlier to show new trailers for and promote their next two (and New Line-specific) DC Films flicks, namely Shazam: Fury of the Gods and Black Adam. It was fine; at least they can boast that Elvis outgrossed Lightyear. Unlike Disney, they aren’t putting all their theatrical eggs in the superhero basket. So, what did we “learn” on Saturday night? Well...
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks spectacular.
The big “news” out of the Marvel panel wasn’t necessarily news, but rather the first teaser trailer for Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther sequel. The film stars Letitia Wright, Lupita Nyong'o and Angela Bassett along with Martin Freeman, who I assume is not the next Black Panther. It bring newbies Tenoch Huerta (as Namor) and Dominique Thorne (as Ironheart) into the franchise. Needless to say, it will not star Chadwick Boseman. The actor (and character) casts an obvious pall over the proceedings. I can only wonder what story Coogler and co-writer Joe Robert Cole have conjured sans the film’s title character (and an actor who was expected to be a core anchor of the post-Endgame MCU). However, what we saw last weekend was one of the best blockbuster-y trailers in recent memory.
Apples and oranges, obviously, but it exists alongside Disney’s final The Force Awakens trailer, WB’s third The Dark Knight Rises preview and Paramount’s first Mission: Impossible – Fallout teaser as one that I’ll watch in the future entirely for entertainment. It’s probably the best MCU trailer save for maybe the first “It’s all lead up to this” Avengers: Infinity War teaser. The unusually on-point musical accompaniment and the breathtaking imagery seem like a glorified rebuttal to those (not entirely incorrectly) arguing that recent MCU films have been lacking in expected visual grandeur and auteristic specificity. That it also looks not dissimilar in some ways to both James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water and (from what little I saw in Vegas) James Wan’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom makes for a fascinating cinematic comparison.
I’ve joked for years that Aquaman 2 had to flee from December 16, 2022 because it and Avatar 2 were potentially the same movie, but Black Panther 2 may offer similar competition. Still, I’m guessing Black Panther 2 won’t be loosely based on Fulvio Lucisano’s Planet of the Vampires. However, I once thought the 2021 Mortal Kombat movie would have more martial arts tournament fighting sequences than Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. Kevin Feige (arbitrarily?) noted that Wakanda Forever would be the season finale for Marvel’s Phase Four. That makes sense as the post-Endgame line-up of movies and Disney+ shows mainly were about new characters (Yelena Belova, Kate Bishop, Jennifer Walters, etc.) being introduced and taking over the mantle of legacy characters (Black Widow, Hawkeye, Hulk, etc.).
2. Marvel’s *Cinematic* Universe mostly depends on sequels, exiting IP and Avengers events.
Shang-Chi and Eternals could be among the last “entirely new” franchises we get out of the Marvel movies. The Phase Five and Phase Six line-up includes a third Ant-Man (February 5, 2023), a third Guardians of the Galaxy (May 5, 2023), a second Captain Marvel (titled The Marvels and due July 28, 2023), a fourth Captain America (May 3, 2024) and a team-up finale involving anti-heroes and villains forming Thunderbolts (July 26, 2024). The closest thing to a “new” movie will be Mahershala Ali’s Blade movie opening on November 3, 2023 and, eventually, in phase six, a Fantastic Four on November 8, 2024. Moreover, while Blade and Fantastic Four are “new” to the MCU (cameos in Eternals and Doctor Strange 2 aside), they (along with eventually the X-Men) are established IP with cinematic legacies.
Marvel’s “secret weapon” at the start was (along with a theatrical ecosystem where $449 million for Thor was an enormous success), not having access to Spider-Man, X-Men and the Fantastic Four. Kevin Fiege and friends had no choice but to turn Iron Man, Thor, Hulk and Captain America into A-level movie stars. It worked, which earned MCU goodwill and allowed them to turn niche-ier characters like Doctor Strange, Black Panther and even the Guardians of the Galaxy into A-level movie stars. They’ve mostly run out of characters who general audiences have probably somewhat heard of. If Eternals ($400 million) and Shang-Chi ($435 million) comparatively underperformed not due to Covid but due to less interest in new MCU properties (and even Ant-Man and the Wasp earned “just” $620 million in mid-2018), well, that’s where Disney+ comes in.
Marvel has been using/will be using the Disney+ television shows as a kind of minor league/farm team. They have introduced new characters (including, yes, younger, more diverse versions of established legacy characters) for their eventual inclusion in the movies. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier saw Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson *finally* become Captain America just in time for Captain America: New World Order. The Marvels will see Brie Larson’s Captain Marvel teaming up with Iman Vellani’s Ms. Marvel and Teyonah Parris's Monica Rambeau (first introduced as an adult in WandaVision). Loki introduced Jonathan Majors’ future big-bad Kang the Conqueror. The shows are creating added value elements for the movies. However, the films will mostly be confined to sequels to existing franchises, new IP with an existing pop culture footprint and periodic Avengers-level team-up films.
3. Walt Disney’s theatrical division is now almost entirely dependent on the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies.
Walt Disney is the only major studio that hasn’t really recovered from Covid-caused shutdowns and release date chaos. Disney has frankly kneecapped their animation theatricals via Disney+ Premier Access and potentially crippled Pixar by sending the last three originals to Disney+ only to stick the commercially misguided Lightyear to theatrical. And with Star Wars’ theatrical fate uncertain, almost A-list toons to remake and a decades-long inability to craft new-to-cinema franchises, Marvel is Disney’s only surefire theatrical hope, and the sole “good news” for Disney’s theatrical ambitions save for the 20th Century acquisition Free Guy and (presumably) James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water this December. All the online handwringing about Marvel masks the fact that the MCU is the only part of Bob Chapek’s Disney that’s still about as successful as it was under Bob Iger’s Disney.
While that sounds commercially and culturally grim, Disney may not need much more to compete in raw market share. Just Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water could earn around $4-$5 billion worldwide combined. The last two will likely challenge Top Gun: Maverick ($1.28 billion-and-counting) for the global crown. Next year has enough MCU films (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, The Marvels and Blade) alongside Indiana Jones 5 to compete even if they all earn closer to $3 billion than $5 billion globally. Ditto 2024 with Captain America 4, Thunderbolts and Fantastic Four alongside (presumably) Avatar 3 and (possibly) a new Star Wars movie. If they can get their animated mojo back, they’ll probably only need Marvel, Lucasfilm, Avatar and DWA/Pixar to rule by default.
Avengers: The Kang Dynasty (presumably featuring newly introduced “Avengers” like Shang-Chi, a new Black Panther and Sam Wilson *as* Captain America) opens May 2, 2025. Avengers: Secret Wars debuts on November 7, 2025 as a two-part Phase Six capper (and series finale to the “Multiverse Saga”). Marvel will try to succeed where the Matrix sequels failed. I’m sure we’ll know soon enough what’s now slated on February 14, 2025 (Hindsight Lad?) and July 25, 2025 (Hellcow?). Otherwise, without digging into the Disney+ television shows, I’m curious if Quantumania (the Phase Five premiere) can vault Ant-Man onto the A-list. I’m intrigued to see Fiege holding back on the X-Men for as long as possible. Maybe Wolverine, Magneto and friends are a “break glass in case of emergency” brand in case Marvel does begin to falter.
