Stevensville, MD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast (2024)

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ANZ540 Eastern Bay- 825 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through late tonight - .

Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers early this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 2 ft.

Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sun night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Wed - SW winds 15 kt - .becoming nw. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 825 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will pass through the region this morning. High pressure gradually pushes in from the west over the weekend while low pressure passes well to the south. The high will move overhead Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will approach Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday night and Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, MD

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Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA

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FXUS61 KPHI 201145 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 745 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front moves offshore this morning. High pressure builds in from the west this afternoon which will be in place through Tuesday.
A cold front passes by Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure then returns and continues through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure lifting well to our north across northern Quebec is dragging a cold front across our region from west to east early this morning, pushing offshore by mid to late morning.
That surface front will slow as it drifts offshore while a new wave of low pressure develops along it, near Cape Cod, then lifts toward Nova Scotia later today. A secondary cold front associated with the mid to upper-level trough axis will pass through this evening, with drier and cooler air filtering into our region in it's wake.

Showers have increased in coverage early this morning, but have begun to shift mainly near and east of I-95 as the cold front begins to pass through. Expect showers will taper off from west to east from mid- morning through midday, with the last of the showers shifting off the NJ shore by early afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be mainly less than a tenth of an inch. There will be some patchy fog at times along the coast this morning.

In the wake of the cold front, skies will begin clearing back toward Reading and the Poconos mid to late morning, reaching I-95 around midday, with sunshine breaking out along the coast by mid-afternoon. This will be a welcome sight for most, as it has been a few days of fairly cool and cloudy weather. West- northwest winds will pick up this afternoon, especially from I-95 northwestward, with some gusts into the 30 mph range. Winds will not be quite as gusty toward the coast, with less opportunity for clearing, mixing and momentum transfer there.
Highs this afternoon will reach well into the 60s, except over the Poconos and some of the nearby ridgetops of NW NJ. Would not rule out 70F in a few spots from near Philly southward.

With a secondary push of cooler and drier air coming in for tonight, dewpoints will continue to drop through the 20s, lowest in areas northwest of the urban corridor. There will be some high clouds possible, but overall skies will be fairly clear, and with high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley, we may see decoupling, easing winds and some rather chilly temperatures into the 30s by Sunday morning. The growing season is set to commence across a number of our zones from the Lehigh Valley across northern NJ on Sunday, and just in time, model guidance suggests some low to mid-30s possible for lows, coldest toward Sussex County. We will probably need a Frost Advisory for some of our zones, particularly Sussex, and probably Warren and Morris; would not rule out patchy frost even back across the Lehigh Valley, but that may be more of the rooftop variety rather than a threat to vegetation.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mostly dry and tranquil weather is expected for the short term period. The cold front that passes through on Saturday will be stalled out along the Southeast coast. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this boundary and skirt off the Carolina coast late Sunday. At the same time, large high pressure will be centered over the Central Plains which will build east through Monday before shifting overhead Monday night.

The only notable change to the forecast from the previous shift is that the track of the low has shifted a bit further north on Sunday.
While most of the global and deterministic guidance keeps the low surpressed to the south...most of the 00Z CAM/hi-res guidance depicts at least some sprinkles/shower activity reaching into the Delmarva and extreme southern NJ. As a result, have introduced slight chance of PoPs (~20%) into these areas for Sunday afternoon.
Elsewhere, skies will remain mostly cloudy. Skies then clear quickly Sunday night as the low moves into the western Atlantic. Skies will then remain clear through Monday night. Will have to watch the development for patchy frost across the Poconos/Lehigh Valley region both nights.

Highs will be in 50s to around 60 on Sunday, followed by the upper 50s to mid 60s on Monday. Lows generally in the 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure begins to shift offshore on Tuesday before completely vacating the area by Tuesday night. At the same time, low pressure will be tracking across the northern Great Lakes while moving into southern Quebec on Wednesday. An associated cold front will be trailing southward from this low which will pass through the area.
Areawide showers are expected with even a few rumbles of thunder possible depending on timing and available instability. Best chances for this would be north and west. Once the front clears the area, high pressure will quickly build in from the west and remain within proximity of the area to close out the work week.

Temperatures through the long term period will run close to average to a few degrees below-normal. Analogs toward the end of the week and into next weekend, signal that a significant warm-up may be in store to close out April.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Mainly LIFR to

to start at 12Z, lifting to

rather quickly from west to east from mid-morning through midday as skies clear and showers push offshore behind a cold front. MIV/ACY will be slower to improve. West/northwest winds around 10-20 kt with some spots seeing gusts near 30 kt in the midday and afternoon hours. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR with mainly clear skies. Winds ease fairly quickly in the evening, but remaining NW 4-8 kt perhaps through midnight. High confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR expected. A slight chance for rain showers near KMIV/KACY. W-NW winds around 10-15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR with mostly clear skies. W-NW winds on Sunday night into Monday, becoming SE-S winds on Monday night into Tuesday. High confidence.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Sub

conditions possible with rain showers. S winds becoming NW following a cold frontal passage. Low confidence.

MARINE
While some of the buoys offshore still report seas near 5 ft, given winds are light otherwise and seas will continue gradually lowering, have let the

expire early this morning. Some marine fog will linger through mid-morning, with some limited areas of VSBY 1 SM or less around lower DE Bay and adjacent ocean zones. Went with a Marine Dense Fog Advisory for that reason. Low visibility with showers and low clouds will lift offshore toward midday and especially for the afternoon, as west to southwest winds pick up around 10-15 kt into this evening. A secondary cold front will swing winds around to the NNW tonight, with gusts over 20 kt, but probably not enough for another advisory.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair weather.
Winds up to 15 kt and seas around 2-3 feet.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...SCA conditions are possible. Rain showers expected. Winds up to 20-23 kt with seas around 3-4 feet.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431- 452>454.

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